Olivier Awards 2024 – predicting the winners

The Olivier Awards are returning once more to the prestigious Royal Albert Hall in April, with audiences across the world watching London crown its top performers and creatives in a star-studded ceremony hosted by the one and only Hannah Waddingham.

With that in mind, we wanted to make some tentative suggestions as to where (some of) the winners may go – though don’t judge us too harshly if we get them wrong!

Performance in Play categories 

In the Best Actress category, it’s a tough one to call – Sophie Okonedo recently picked up the Critics’ Circle Award for Medea, but had the luxury of not going up against Sarah Snook for her solo turn in The Picture of Dorian Gray for those awards. Snook is probably where we’d place our money, in a show that’s very much the talk of the town.

Best Actor is equally hard to call – you have WhatsOnStage Award-winner James Norton against the utterly riveting turns from Joseph Fiennes and Mark Gatiss, both of whom dominated the two National Theatre stages (and subsequently the West End) with their turns as real-life figures (Gareth Southgate and John Gielgud, respectively). Then you have David Tennant, who made the well-trodden lines of Macbeth feel fresh and gripping. But we’d probably go with the Critics’ Circle and say it might go to Andrew Scott for his blistering Vanya – which may well go down as one of the best performances of the century.

As for the assisting categories, we’d be very reluctant to call anything – could there be a posthumous win for the icon that was Haydn Gwynne, or might Gina McKee win for sitting right at the heart of James Graham’s Dear England? And on the Supporting Actor side – another Olivier for Giles Terera, or recognition for Will Close for his wildly endearing Harry Kane?

Performance in Musical categories

Best Actor in a Musical feels very much up for grabs – Daniel Mays’ hilarious Nathan Detroit, Tom Francis’ promenade crooner braving the elements every night, David Cumming being divinely hilarious in Operation Mincemeat and Charlie Stemp bringing his unparalleled dance moves to Crazy for You…. We don’t want to call it – any of the wins would be wonderful. But, in an incredibly strong year (Caissie Levy, Marisha Wallace, Natasha Hodgson each bringing completely different skillsets to the fore), Nicole Scherzinger feels like a relative cert for Best Actress, right?

On the supporting side, again, it feels a lot less predictable – Jack Wolfe has been winning a lot of awards for his turn in Next to Normal, but Cedric Neal felt like he was made for Nicely-Nicely Johnson in Guys and Dolls. That feels like a strong possibility. Then, of course, you have understated yet brilliant turns from Jak Malone (“Dear Bill” being one of the best ballads the West End has seen for years) in Mincemeat and David Thaxton in Sunset Boulevard… each would surely have picked up a fair few votes.

Creative/Technical categories

Without a Newsies-shaped behemoth to contend with (as he had at the WhatsOnStage Awards), we’d love to see Fabian Aloise’s work on Sunset Boulevard recognised for choreography – his kinetic work built so much of what made Jamie Lloyd’s world feel fresh, alive and unpredictable. His one hurdle – Susan Stroman’s work on dance-heavy Crazy for You – a show that essentially existed to wow through movement.

As the Oliviers don’t have a dedicated video design category, set and video are largely bundled together – so we’d not be surprised if Miriam Buether’s Stranger Things technical witchcraft alongside 59 Productions trumped Souta Gilmour, Nathan Amzi and Joe Ransom’s work for Sunset Boulevard. Both were masterclasses of design but in wildly different ways. That said, seeing live-stream video capture being recognised at the Oliviers could be a huge moment in a year that has seen huge strides for video.

Show categories 

The Oliviers’ voting system is a symbiotic process that involves both a dedicated judging panel and the coterie of various producers who keep the West End full of dynamic and exciting new work. These producer dynamics can sometimes help with predicting where the wind blows. With Stranger Things not vying for the Best New Play award, it leaves space for the likes of Dear England or The Motive and the Cue (a recent Critics’ Circle winner) to take the spot.

On the musical side, with nominations in every performance category, Operation Mincemeat feels like the show to beat – it’s already picked up the WhatsOnStage Award, and looks set for a big, bountiful future in the West End.

Both revival categories have some very big players in their midst this year – from Vanya, Donmar’s Macbeth, the wonderful Shirley Valentine or Jamie Lloyd’s suave, captivating version of The Effect. If we had to bet, we’d probably go for one of the first two…

Musicals revivals-wise, it feels firmly like a two-horse race between the Bridge’s Guys and Dolls and Sunset Boulevard. While the former has picked up the WhatsOnStage Award, the Critics’ Circle Award and the Evening Standard Theatre Award, the latter has racked up a stack of trophies so far – so could the Oliviers blow towards the Boulevard over the Bridge?