Olivier Awards – predicting the 2023 winners 

Right, we’ll admit – last year we had a pretty easy time predicting some of the winners after the record-level success of smash-hit Cabaret. So this time over, the field feels mightily more varied – and as such we’re sure there’s lots to play for! Here are some predictions and, as ever, please don’t judge us if we’re wrong.

New musical

It’s nice to see four musicals that feel fresh and original vying for the top spot this year, and we have to confess we have soft spots for all of them. But given it’s rolling on a high after wrapping up its National Theatre run (and we’d put money on it coming back in the near future), we’re leaning towards Standing at the Sky’s Edge – though Tammy Faye may well jump in and build on the success of its original Almeida run. 

New play

This seems like a toss-up between the solo-show supreme WhatsOnStage Award-winner Prima Facie, which was a sell-out smash, and To Kill a Mockingbird – one of two shows being steered by producer Sonia Friedman (who has an almost supernatural ability to produce Olivier Award-winning plays). But we have to say it’d be a complete joy to see For Black Boys Who Have Considered Suicide When The Hue Gets Too Heavy get the win – following its stellar runs at the Royal Court and now opening in the West End. 

Best revival

Having watched the starry A Streetcar Named Desire last week and given it’s got a lot of producers backing it (producers also vote in the Oliviers process, so this can often help the odds for specific shows), that’s definitely where we’d put our money. It would be a fab winner for director Rebecca Frecknall, following her masterful takes on Cabaret and Summer and Smoke. But we’d never write off the likes of Jerusalem, which interestingly never won a Best New Play award when it first premiered. The Crucible and Good would also be worthy recipients, with the former now set for the West End. 

Best musical revival

WhatsOnStage Award-winner Oklahoma! has to be the surefire favourite here – with big producers including Friedman and Michael Harrison on board. It’s been an excellent year for musical revivals, as seems to be a running trend, but this revelatory take on a classic has been getting oodles of love. 

Performer categories

Here’s where all bets are off. But we’re going to make some anyway. Starting with the musicals side of things, there are four actors who could all deservedly take the top spot, so we’re not massively keen on calling, though for actresses we’d probably hedge our bets either on Faith Omole or Katie Brayben triumphing – both were outstanding in Sky’s Edge and Tammy Faye respectively. 

For the plays, given Jodie Comer is flying back from New York during her rehearsals for the show on Broadway, we’ve got a strong sense that she’d be where to put the money for Best Actress. This might deny A Streetcar Named Desire three acting nods, as we’d place Paul Mescal and Anjana Vasan as the likely candidates in their respective categories… though we’d not write off any of their contenders. It has been a wonderful year for acting turns. 

Oh and for actor in a supporting role, we’d love to see the full ensemble for For Black Boys take it – each made their stage debuts in the show and have worked wonders in a brilliant, blistering piece. 

For supporting in musicals, the field is a lot less predictable – all of the best supporting actress nominees were stand-outs in their shows so it’d be a joy to see them win, while best supporting actor category is equally a toss-up. Cringe alert, but I guess the real winners are us, for having such excellent talents on our stages. 

Technical categories

There’s one show we’ve not yet mentioned in this entire feature and that’s My Neighbour Totoro, which is funny because it could well be the title on everyone’s lips by Sunday evening. A mammoth nine nominations, the show was an out-and-out success – especially for its technical achievements. We could easily see it grabbing the most on the night – especially for Best Entertainment or Comedy, Lighting, Sound, Design, Original Score or New Orchestrations – even maybe choreography for that incredible puppetry operation. 

We’d also be buzzing if Rebecca Frecknall picked up a third win for director for A Streetcar Named Desire – she is truly leading the charge for the future of British theatre. 

Other thoughts

As we said up top – it’s a rogue year for the Oliviers in many ways. But given it’s the first full awards season since lockdown disruption, more than anything it’s exciting to see theatre back on its feet – and with so many shows and creatives firing on all cylinders. Long may that continue.