Could any stage show ever repeat Wicked’s success?

With its fairly solid critical reaction and big box office numbers, Wicked has successfully stuck the landing – and entered the pantheon of stage-to-screen adaptations that have cut through to the general public, alongside things like Les Misérables, Grease and Mamma Mia!. 

But as it settles down for what is destined to be a lucrative and successful run (and that’s before we get to questions of home release and merchandise next year, as well as possible avenues for theme parks or spin-offs), it does make you think – could there ever be another Wicked? 

To identify a genuine successor, we have to first dissect Wicked‘s appeal. There are three tiers to its resonance with mainstream audiences: tapping into a beloved classic property (The Wizard of Oz), centring it on a universally resonant story of female friendship and political marginalisation, all while delivering a score of undeniably top-tier tunes by some internationally renowned names. This combination is a financial and critical sweet spot.

The challenge in replicating this model would be immense. Many high-profile stage properties are currently mooted for the screen, yet few possess this specific alchemy.

Take, for instance, the news that Wicked director Jon M Chu will be adapting Andrew Lloyd Webber’s Joseph and the Amazing Technicolor Dreamcoat. While Chu’s involvement suggests ambition and visual flair, the underlying material presents significant limitations. It is inherently a nostalgic, episodic piece, lacking the deep, generational thematic conflict that drove Wicked. Its target audience is broad, but it arguably lacks the necessary edge or zeitgeist currency to become a global, defining cinematic event.

The recurrent whisper of a new Andrew Lloyd Webber’s The Phantom of the Opera film – which the composer often mentions – presents an enticing proposition. While the score remains a global cultural sensation, it already has a well-defined 2004 film adaptation. To achieve Wicked-level success, a new version would need to deliver a complete reinterpretation (could someone ask Guillermo Del Toro if he’s keen?). The novelty factor is hampered somewhat. Simply put, its potential for genuine subversion is limited.

There’s a case for something like Six, which has rocked audiences around the world, but this may boil down to casting and the ability to wrap a film-friendly narrative around what is fundamentally a concert-style event that works best in front of a live audience.

This brings us to arguably the only musical with comparable, proven international appeal and thematic depth: Lin-Manuel Miranda’s Hamilton.

While the existing Disney+ pro-shot exists, the case for a live-action Hamilton is compelling: combining historical narrative with contemporary debate. The scale and cinematic verve of some of those battle scenes, or political duels, could be resplendent.

Should a studio commit to a fully cinematic, immersive adaptation – one that expands the world beyond the confines of the stage recording – it possesses the essential ingredients: a revolutionary core, a global following, I’d even wager there’s a billion-dollar franchise there in the right hands. It is perhaps the only theatrical property that truly contends with Wicked‘s cultural gravity.