2024 was a big year for homegrown new musicals in the West End – now what?

Last year was meant to see a “wave” of new musicals that brought in a deluge of emerging talent to the West End, according to The Guardian. 

In many ways, it was: SpitLip’s histo-comedy musical Operation Mincemeat has now bedded itself in for the foreseeable future at the Fortune Theatre after picking up WhatsOnStage and Olivier Awards. The Ambassadors and Criterion Theatres, beautiful and boutique spaces, played host to new shows like Two Strangers (Carry A Cake Across New York) and Kathy and Stella Solve A Murder!, each with admirable audience and critical responses.

The most interesting case study is probably Why Am I So Single? – the new show from Six queenmakers Toby Marlow and Lucy Moss. Initially programmed at the larger Garrick Theatre for an open-ended run, a myriad of reasons have meant its closure comes next week after a four-month spell. It’s easy to fixate on what the show didn’t achieve, but what it did prove is that Marlow and Moss are not one-hit-wonders – the standards in Why Am I So Single? display ears for catchy tunes and minds that dish out cracking lyrics with abandon. Whatever their third show might be is already an appealing prospect.

If that was 2024 though, what comes next? Aside from Mincemeat, and now The Curious Case of Benjamin Button with an extending run, most of that new “wave” played limited seasons that never “challenged” the West End status quo in a way The Guardian seemed to suggest they might.

Perhaps that’s the problem – with such a desire to land the next “smash-hit” – the next Six, or the next Hamilton – less is made of the reliable, jobbing composers who are creating solid work that does respectable business, yet takes many, many years to get to a place where a long, hearty West End run is viable. The challenge is even more extreme when the show doesn’t have existing IP to rely upon – as is the case with many that premiered last year.

Producers should turn to Mrs Lovett, perhaps: “don’t distress yourself, what’s your rush?” Operation Mincemeat had a handful of pre-West End seasons before it finally found its way to the Fortune Theatre, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button had two off-West End runs, and Kathy and Stella was seen in Edinburgh, Manchester and Bristol before the West End. Two Strangers (Carry A Cake Across New York) had to be rechristened, refashioned and retooled before it hit the West End with performances in Northampton and north London – and its album is now enjoying millions of streams online. I’d bet a loaded AmEx card that it’ll be back before long. The producers of Jack Godfrey’s Babies have to be applauded for dipping their toes into a conservative six-week run at The Other Palace, knowing that patience is key for fine-tuning fresh material.

That’s not to say the West End is the be-all and end-all of musical success – a raft of regional and touring productions were big hits in 2024. Chamber musical The History of Paper was an award-winning Edinburgh hit during the summer, while Godfrey’s 42 Balloons was a soaring Salford sensation. I expect more news on that one very, very soon. On that note, we’ve also compiled a list of new musicals coming in 2025.

Arguably the most exciting parts of 2024 was not new shows, but instead the development of new musical theatre departments dedicated to the art form – with Birmingham Hippodrome spearheading a move towards institutional change. Theatres like the Royal Court have also expressed a willingness to platform new shows, joining the flock of fantastic organisations already in place to celebrate and support composers, writers and lyricists. Musical success is rarely overnight – it can take years, decades, for writers to find their feet and perfect their magnum opus. 2024 shouldn’t be a wave – but the wellspring for a stream of success to follow.