[angelfan]

When I read that a show has had its booking period extended it means that the show will be on for the length of the booking period. However a lot of people on here say that booking periods mean nothing. This has left me confused. What is the point of a show having a booking period if it means nothing.

A lot of people also say that even when a show extends its booking period it can be a sign that the show is closing. If that's how can you tell when a show is going to close after its booking period has extended? I've just read that Priscilla and Sister Act have extended their booking periods (to May and December respectively). Speculation has been rife that Priscilla will close at the end of September. I have tickets booked for the start of October so now I'm wondering if the show will close now that its booking period has been extended.

[Matthew Winn]

(Ooh. One of my favourite subjects.)

There are several conflicting factors pulling at the length of a booking period, and there are advantages and disadvantages to both short and long booking periods.

A short booking period gives the producers more flexibility to change seating or pricing. Once you've started selling seats you can't easily change the price: if you put the price up after some seats have been sold you've lost revenue on those seats, and if you cut the price you get bad publicity from people who have already paid the higher price. It's much easier to change the pricing before the seats go on sale. Short booking periods allow for things like a change of theatre if the show proves more or less popular than expected. Short periods allow for replacement big-name stars. Short periods mean that the production doesn't have to make commitments far into the future. Short periods mean the producers don't have to go through the expensive and difficult process of refunding money if the show closes early.

On the other hand, if the booking period is too short then people start being turned away from the box office because the choice of seats is too limited. Once potential customers have left the box office they'll almost always go and book for something else rather than keep trying to get seats for the same show.

Long periods give customers more choice and that can bring in a small amount of extra money, but the down side is that the producers have to make plans far further ahead than they may be comfortable with. In particular, with a fairly new show a long booking period may mean that they have to base their commercial strategy on conjectures about the show's performance five or ten times further ahead than the time the show has been running. That's a risky option in an already risky business.

In practice a booking period is usually a compromise between something short enough that the producers aren't making risky commitments they may be unable to honour, but not so short that a significant amount of custom is being lost. Most West End musicals sell tickets in six-month blocks that are renewed around three months in advance, so a typical musical will be selling tickets between three and nine months ahead.

So how does this relate to closures?

As said, a long booking period - say, a year in advance - has disadvantages. There are only two reasons why it happens. The first is when a show is so popular that even a six-month booking period doesn't offer enough free seats to avoid having to turn people away. In this case a longer booking period is useful, and the problems inherent in committing to performances over a year in advance are more than offset by the assurance of a healthy profit.

But if a show isn't selling out months in advance then a long booking period is a danger sign, because the second reason why a show may extend way into the future is that it's so close to failure that even the tiny dribble of bookings from the few people who do plan that far ahead may be just enough to keep it going. It's not a good financial policy because the show is effectively borrowing money from the future, but if the extra percent or two can tide the show over until it can find an audience then it might just survive. It is very much a sign of desperation, however, and it works so rarely that when a recently-opened show that is known not to be selling out starts offering tickets over a year in advance it's almost certain that it'll post closing notices within a month or so.

So that's why people often say that booking periods mean little or nothing. With a show that has been around for a while the producers can be reasonably confident about its future performance and can sell tickets with just as much confidence. With new shows they just don't know what will happen. The booking period is based on what they expect or hope will occur, but the closure date is based on the audience they actually get.

[Mark_E]

Wow, what an explanation!!!

As far as booking periods go, I had tickets for Sunset Boulevard booked for September, then it shut. I then booked tickets for ALNM for September, then it shut. Unlucky I guess.

[angelfan]

Thanks for the detailed explanation Matthew. Hopefully it means that as Priscilla was originally booking to September then extended to January and has now extended to May it's not a sign that it's going to close.

Sister Act on the other hand has extended to December next year and is already selling discounted tickets so maybe this isn't a good sign.