Olivier Awards – we predict the 2026 nominations

Ahead of nominees being revealed next week, the race for the 2026 Olivier Awards, with Cunard, is already heating up – but who will be frontrunner and who might not have the afternoon they were hoping for? We mull over 12 months of some rather brill shows.

Want to skip the read? We’ve also discussed the topic on this week’s WhatsOnStage Podcast:

The battle for Best New Play

The competition for Best New Play is particularly fierce this year, with several heavy hitters from renowned playwrights. Suzie Miller, following the global phenomenon of Prima Facie, has returned with Inter Alia, starring Rosamund Pike as a High Court judge – it’s due to return later this spring as well. James Graham’s Punch has also had a profound effect on the UK theatre scene, while Ava Pickett’s 1536 at the Almeida – winner of the Susan Smith Blackburn Prize – is also due a transfer and a move to TV. Those three feel locked in.

Beyond that – it could go anywhere – David Adjmi’s Tony Award-winning smash Stereophonic, which captures the electric tension of a 1970s recording studio, and Jack Holden’s Kenrex, are both certainly contenders. Rounding out the potential nominees are Luke Norris’s heartbreaking Guess How Much I Love You?, Brian Watkins’s Weather Girl, Alice Birch’s provocative epic Romans, a novel or the virtuoso Good Night, Oscar, which saw Sean Hayes reprise his Tony-winning role at the Barbican.

From chuckles to chilling thrillers

The Best New Entertainment/Comedy category is always a fun addition to the night – this year we expect to see Mischief’s The Comedy About Spies, on the list, as well as the wonderful Oh, Mary! and The Last Laugh, or even the real wildcard that is Paranormal Activity.

A stacked season of revivals

The race for Best Play Revival is always a clash of titans, but this year feels particularly packed. Ivo van Hove’s All My Sons, starring Bryan Cranston as Joe Keller, was certainly the critics’ darling, but there was a lot of love given to Jamie Lloyd’s Much Ado About Nothing – we feel both of those will likely make themselves at home on the list. But where else? Simon Stone’s Lady from the Sea could wash its way in, but personally we’d bank on Conor McPherson’s haunting revival of The Weir and Thomas Ostermeier’s fresh take on The Seagull.

Musicals: Balconies, bears and the Bridge? 

Best Musical Revival looks to be a head-to-head battle between Lloyd’s pulsating, contemporary Evita at the Palladium – starring a powerhouse Rachel Zegler who absolutely made the summer her own on the venue’s balcony – and the Bridge Theatre’s lush, expansive production of Into the Woods. Both have been received very favourably by critics and audiences. What could complete the set? The West End transfer of the Menier’s five-star staging of The Producers is likely to be a strong presence across next Thursday’s nominations. The Oliviers can swing between three and four nominated musical revivals, so it’s then down to a head-to-head between American Psycho at the Almeida and Drew McOnie’s dreamy Brigadoon.

For Best New Musical, one title towers over the rest: Paddington. Featuring state-of-the-art animatronics, it has truly captured the public imagination. Paddington met the Queen this week! What will go up against it? In any other year The Unlikely Pilgrimage of Harold Fry would be a strong contender, as is the corn-fed comedy of Shucked, and there may be an honorary nod for Stephen Sondheim’s final work, Here We Are.

The packed leading performance categories

Best Actress – Rosamund Pike is currently the one to beat for her role in Inter Alia. She faces stiff competition from Hayley Atwell, whose Beatrice in Much Ado About Nothing was a revelation. We’d expect the category to also feature Marianne Jean-Baptiste, whose performance in All My Sons was heartbreakingly refreshing, as well as the superhuman Cynthia Erivo, for all her multi-ruling efforts in a middling Dracula. A final fifth spot? Likely someone with the star power of Cate Blanchett in The Seagull, though it would be exciting to have a wildcard presence.

On the best actor side, it’s certainly a battle of the ‘on’s… We’d eat our hats if there weren’t nominations for the terrific Brendan Gleeson in The Weir or Cranston, whose Joe Keller in All My Sons felt effortlessly riveting. Closer to home, Tom Hiddleston’s Benedick in Much Ado feels like a bona fide crowdpleaser.

Who else? It’s incredibly tough to call – Jack Holden would make a worthy nominee for his virtuoso multi-role performance in Kenrex, Sean Hayes, reprising his Tony-winning role in Good Night, Oscar, and David Shields, who provided the emotional core of the hard-hitting Punch. Watch out for Jonathan Bailey for his Richard II, of course.

In the musical categories, the spotlight is firmly on Zegler. Her Eva Perón in Evita was a vocal phenomenon. Her primary rival could be Jenna Russell, who delivered a luminous and deeply moving performance as Maureen in The Unlikely Pilgrimage of Harold Fry, reminding everyone why she is a West End legend. Katie Brayben is also a strong contender for the Baker’s Wife in Into the Woods, while Amy Ellen Richardson could be tipped for a nomination for Paddington. A curveball? Jane Krakowski at the National Theatre in Here We Are – a deft comedic performance in a very tricksy show.

Where to begin with Best Actor in a Musical though? Mark Addy’s turn as the titular character in The Unlikely Pilgrimage of Harold Fry, might see him present alongside Andy Nyman and Marc Antolin: their comedy duo in The Producers was truly splendid. Diego Andres Rodriguez also made a massive splash as Ché in Evita, providing an adept and playful counterpoint to Zegler’s Eva. Rounding out the non-ursine predictions are Rory Kinnear, for Sondheim’s Here We Are, and Jamie Parker, whose splendid Baker in Into the Woods was a highlight of the Bridge Theatre production. A final nod might go to Phillip Attmore, who was silky smooth in the revival of Top Hat.

The real question mark here will be whether they put Paddington in for Best Actor in a Musical. There’s been a lot of debate about this: the Critics’ Circle Theatre Awards has done, because the character is a male character and is voiced by a man, James Hameed, even though Arti Shah predominantly performs as Paddington, there’s also other performers that can inhabit the bear. Really, it’s a question that we won’t know the answer to until the day of the noms itself – but given the precedent set by the tiger Richard Parker in Life of Pi, where they did put that in for actor despite the fact it was shared by many people, we expect that Paddington will also be nominated for Actor in a Musical.

Small update: Shah and Hameed are in line for Best Actor, according to sources.

Strong support

It’s long been the case that these four categories could go anywhere – especially as they’re selected slightly differently – and all the better for it! For Supporting Actor, Paapa Essiedu in All My Sons is almost certain; he was the perfect foil to Cranston. Another strong foil is rising star Jasper Talbot with his performance opposite Pike in Inter Alia. Could we also see love for Joe Alwyn in Lady from the Sea or the cast of Stereophonic? For Supporting Actress, Hayley Squires in All My Sons was incredible, while there’s also the 1536 trio. In Punch, which we’ve talked about as a big contender, I’d expect Julie Hesmondhalgh.

And for the supporting musical categories – all eyes must be on Paddington – Brenda Edwards, Bonnie Langford, Amy Booth Steele and Victoria Hamilton Barritt are all beloved MT names and do some tremendous work in the show. That’s four already in Supporting Actress! Then again, for Into the Woods, Kate Fleetwood was truly magnificent as the Witch. There’s also the wonderful Bella Brown who left a lasting impression in Evita, or Joanna Woodward in The Producers.

For Supporting Actor, Tom Edden as Mr Curry in Paddington was hilarious; he’s got that classic comedic timing. And maybe someone like Denis O’Hare for Here We Are, Trevor Ashley in The Producers, James Olivas in Evita, or one of the princes from Into the Woods?

Creative side of things

We’ve only picked out some choice thoughts as this article is already running far too long… Best Director is a battle between Jamie Lloyd for Evita or Much Ado – honestly, take your pick – and Jordan Fein for Into the Woods. But don’t count out Luke Sheppard for the sheer technical feat of Paddington. Then, of course, there’s Ivo van Hove for All My Sons or Conor McPherson for The Weir.

For design, could the Bridge Theatre dominate? Tom Scutt’s forest for Into the Woods was immersive and haunting. But then you have Lizzie Clachan’s design for Lady from the Sea – I mean, they built a literal swimming pool on stage! That has to be nominated. And David Zinn’s recording studio for Stereophonic was so hyper-realistic you could almost smell the sweaty snare drum.

Some question marks remain – how will the Oliviers elect to recognise the well-reported video work in Evita without a Video Design category? And another Paddington question – could they give the bear a special prize or would they put something specific in place for Costume Design? We’ll just have to wait and see – some of the fun is in the not knowing!